Loading
NOTCH
Where predictions are permanent.
COMMIT
REVEAL
RESOLVE
↓
◆Arbitrum
⬡Chainlink
◎Pyth Network
⧉ERC-1155
∫Brier Score
◈111+ Assets
⟐Commit-Reveal
#keccak256
⊕Dual Oracle
⬢On-Chain
◆Arbitrum
⬡Chainlink
◎Pyth Network
⧉ERC-1155
∫Brier Score
◈111+ Assets
⟐Commit-Reveal
#keccak256
⊕Dual Oracle
⬢On-Chain
—
Pred.Predictions
Genesis
—
Reso.Resolved
Genesis
111
Asse.Assets
—
Pass.Passes
Genesis
—
$0
Volu.Volume
Genesis
—
$0
Fees.Fees
Genesis
The Protocol
Cryptographic conviction
Every prediction passes through three immutable stages. No backdating. No deletion.
01
Commit
Hash your prediction with a secret salt and submit it on-chain. Nobody can see it. Nobody can front-run it.
02
Reveal
After the delay, publish the prediction and salt. Contract verifies the hash matches.
AssetETH/USD
DirectionABOVE
Target$4,200
Confidence78%
03
Resolve
Oracle delivers the price at resolution time. Your Notch Score updates. Permanent.
VerdictCORRECT
Actual: $4,512Score +2.4%
Why Notch
Nothing else does this
The only protocol combining cryptographic commitment, calibration-aware scoring, persistent reputation, and tradeable instruments on verified skill.
| Polymarket | Numerai | Copin.io | Notch | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commit-reveal | — | — | — | ✓ |
| Calibration scoring | — | ✓ | — | ✓ |
| Tradeable reputation | — | — | ~ | ✓ |
| Composable API | — | — | — | ✓ |
| Persistent history | — | — | — | ✓ |
Features
Everything on-chain
Commit-Reveal
Two-phase submission prevents front-running and copycat attacks. Predictions are hashed on-chain, then revealed after the window closes.
// Phase 1 — commit
bytes32 hash = keccak256(
abi.encodePacked(prediction, salt)
);
notch.commit(marketId, hash);
// Phase 2 — reveal
notch.reveal(marketId, prediction, salt);Brier Score Calibration
0%Forecast confidence100%
111+crypto assets
Alpha Passes
ERC-1155Composable API
Query any address’s calibration score on-chain.
interface INotchScore {
function getScore(address user)
external view
returns (uint256 brierScore);
}Dual Oracle
CL
ChainlinkPY
PythRedundant price feeds
The Math
Try the Brier Score
The mathematical core of Notch. Drag the sliders to see why honest confidence reporting is the only rational strategy.
Explore the Brier Score
75%
50%99%
75%
0%100%
Brier Score
0.1875
If you say 75% and you’re right 75% of the time, your Brier Score is 0.1875
Perfect calibration!
Lower is better. A Brier Score of 0.0000 means perfect predictions. A score of 0.2500 is no better than flipping a coin.
Scoring
The Notch Score
Not just accuracy. Calibration. When you say 78% confident and you're right 78% of the time, that's a perfect Brier score.
Accuracy40%
95.7%EMA of correct predictions. 0.95 decay — recent calls matter more.
Calibration25%
89.3%Brier score. How well stated confidence matches outcomes.
Consistency20%
64.3%Low variance in rolling accuracy. Steady beats lucky.
Volume15%
15.4%Log-scaled prediction count. Statistical significance.
Your Profile
Every predictor gets a verifiable on-chain scorecard
—
—
—
—
Calibration Curve
Start predicting to build your score
Make Your First PredictionMarketplace
Genesis Passes
ERC-1155 tokens granting access to future predictions. Buy, sell, and trade verified alpha. 2.5% fee per trade.
Soon
Soon
Soon
Minting Soon
The marketplace opens when predictors build their scores.
For Predictors
Back your calls. Build your name.
Your track record lives on-chain. Cryptographically committed, immutably scored, publicly verifiable.
||||̸
Unforgeable reputation
Commit-reveal prevents backdating. Score derived from reality.
$
Monetize your alpha
Sell Notch Passes. Set your price. Protocol handles the marketplace.
%
Earn continuously
Staking rewards for top predictors. Performance fees.
For Consumers
Verified alpha. Quantified edge.
Stop trusting anonymous channels. Buy access to predictors with verified, on-chain track records.
✓
Verified track records
Accuracy, calibration, consistency — all on-chain, all immutable.
⇄
Tradeable access
Buy a pass, use it, resell it. Prices driven by demand.
▦
Composable data
Build indices of top predictors. API for automated systems.
Leaderboard
View all →Genesis Leaderboard
Team
Built from conviction
Research
Calibration as a Commodity
How commit-reveal prediction cycles and the Brier Score create an incentive-compatible, manipulation-resistant proof of calibration. A mechanism design essay.
Notch it or it didn't happen.
The first protocol where trading intelligence has a verifiable price.